Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.
منابع مشابه
Mortality and displaced mortality during heat waves in the Czech Republic.
The aims of this study were to assess impacts of hot summer periods on mortality in the Czech Republic and to quantify the size of the short-term displacement effect which resulted in lower than expected mortality after heat waves. The analysis covered the period 1982-2000 when several extraordinarily hot summers occurred in central Europe. Daily total all-cause mortality and mortality due to c...
متن کاملتحلیل فضایی امواج گرمایی ایران
Climate risks are the inherent features of Earth's climate. The occurence of heat wave is one of these natural phenomena. Heat waves, one of the basic appearances of climate change, are very important because of frequency and damage of life and property, (Haddow et al, 2008). Frequency of heat wave occurence in recent years, is one of the aspects of climatic changes and extreme weather (Matthie...
متن کاملاثر تغییر اقلیم بر امواج گرمایی سواحل شمالی خلیجفارس
Climate change is one of the most significant threats facing the world today. One of the most important consequences of climate change is increasing frequency of climate hazards, mainly heat waves. This phenomena has a robust impacts on human and other ecosystems. The aim of this study is investigating changes of heat waves in historical (1980-2014) and projected (2040-2074) data in northern co...
متن کاملThe application of Extreme value analysis method in heat wave hazard climatology; case study in Mid-Southern Iran
The application of Extreme value analysis method in heat wave hazard climatology; case study in Mid-Southern Iran Abstract Greenhouse warming poses the main cause of atmospheric hazards’ exacerbation and emergence in recent years. Earth planet has been witnessing frequent and severe natural hazards from the distant past; however, global warming has strongly influenced the occurrence of some a...
متن کاملStatistical analysis of heat waves in the southern slopes of Alborz
Heat waves are important phenomena in Iran, And its upsurge in recent years seems to have a high upside trend.This climate has a negative impact on agriculture, forest fire and forestry, water resources, energy use and human health.The purpose of the research is to explain the frequency, time distribution, continuity of thermal waves, and the identification of its occurrence in the southern foo...
متن کامل